Miss Mabrouk of Egypt

Check the archives too - a lot of good stuff to enjoy. Me myself? Off to new adventures in the blogosphere, if time permits.

Tuesday, July 26, 2005

We Did It! Yeah, So What?

A third Islamic group, also previously unknown, is now claiming responsibility for the attack in Sharm El-Sheik. Really: and so what? I am not saying they did not do it. Let us just not be fooled into believing they are something they want to be - but is not.

The new claim from “The Tawhid and Jihad Group in Egypt” could “be more credible as it was posted on an Islamist Web site often used by the Al-Qaeda group in Iraq.” Previous claims were made on the Internet by the "Abdullah Azzam Brigades of Al-Qaeda" and by the “Holy Warriors of Egypt.” After last year’s attack similar claims were made by Islamist groups. It turned out to be an ‘unaffiliated’ group that blew up Taaba Hilton and two beaches.

The Sharm El-Sheik attacks were carried out by Egyptians. Money to buy the two trucks and 500 kg of explosives - apparently from Serbia - as well bombing expertise probably came from abroad – the Pakistani track is relevant. Such hints of an Egyptian-Foreigner constellation has produced theories about where precisely these groups fit in a global Al-Qaeda franchise, often presuming in the end that the attacks were directed from Osama Bin Laden’s virtual control room. But we only know there is a foreign connection; its scope and size remains unclear. Says NYT: "The preparation and execution were local," the security official said. "But perhaps the planning had foreign elements."

That is, I think, where in this case the international cooperation between twisted jihadist’s begins and ends. Boxing them in a structured organization makes them larger than they are and, gives them the credit they do not deserve. Going one step further and assume a hierarchy that put foreign leaders in control lead us to the wrong questions:

“But then why would al-Qaeda or some other international terror group concentrate its most spectacular attacks on this rather peripheral chunk of Egyptian territory when there are plenty of vulnerable tourist and other foreign targets in the country’s heartland?”
(An objection: at any given moment there are more foreigners in Egypt’s two major seaside destinations than anywhere else in the country. To target Cairo, Luxor and Aswan are different animals; among other things, more difficult to get to and certainly policed in a different way).

The answer to the question is: Because that was what was on the table: local hot-heads, fanatics, militants, and suicides - whatever they really are – either came up with an idea and asked around for support. Or, the idea were put to them and crafted together until they reached a consensus on what could be achieved. They did what they were capable of. They were not implementing orders. I do not doubt Al-Qaeda or other organizations are capable of even worse evil-doing than this month’s attacks. But accomplishing another well-crafted operation like 9/11 is just not that easy any more. This is what we will get. I am not even sure the attackers accomplished their goals: police says an ambush-road block after the first explosion probably blocked the second attacker from reaching the Iberotel Hotel. In the blogsphere, many are convinced the president’s holiday palace was the target.

So when we hear that some people somewhere in Egypt are claiming responsibility of mass-murdering between 64 and 88 people, mostly Egyptians, and they do so under a collective name that is tagged with that of a larger network of like-minded people around the world, let us acknowledge the connections and treat the threat for what it is. But let us not project our fear upon them and make them larger than they most likely are. Let’s listen to Musharraf, Pakistan’s president:

"So in this situation, is it possible that an Al-Qaeda man sitting here is controlling events in London or Sharm el-Sheikh or other parts of the world?"... "This is absolutely wrong."
"The world must understand that this Al-Qaeda has become a phenomenon" … "a state of mind" that could not be defeated by military means alone. … "It is a phenomenon where everyone has started calling himself Al-Qaeda, whether he has done it in London or Sharm el-Sheikh."
“It has no command structure originating from Pakistan and conveying messages to the whole world to do this act and do that act under total coordination of some commander."
His comments were prompted in a press conference where he categorically denied Pakistani involvement in the attacks. He might be right or wrong. In either case, his analysis of the ‘phenomenon’ stands on its own. I think we ought to listen.